Fig. 2: Ratio of cases averted with the one vs two-dose schedule and varying cumulative incidence.
From: Optimal deployment of limited vaccine supplies to control mpox outbreaks
A Assuming a time-varying force of infection and non-decaying vaccine effectiveness, we predict the ratio of cases averted between the one-dose and two dose-strategies, assuming different cumulative incidences (% of people in the population infected in 2 years if unvaccinated). Solid line indicates the ratio of cases averted and shaded region indicates the 95% credible interval. B−D Assuming a time-varying force of infection, and decaying vaccine effectiveness, we predict a range between which the ratio of cases averted must fall (solid coloured regions, full opacity), for a 4 week (B), 26 week (C) and 52 week (D) dose spacing. The 95% credible intervals around the range is given by the shaded regions and dashed lines. Dotted horizontal lines indicate when the cases averted with the one-dose or two-dose strategy are equal, when the ratio of cases averted is above one, the one-dose strategy is optimal.
