Extended Data Fig. 8: Sensitivity of projected changes in pIOD variability to emission scenario.
From: Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming
Shown are results for emission scenario RCP 4.5. a, b, Comparison of variability of the moderate pIOD (M-index) and strong pIOD (S-index), respectively, in the present-day (1900–1999) and future (2000–2099) climate in 15 out of 33 CMIP5 models that simulate a nonlinear coefficient α greater than 50% of the observed value. In a, a total of 14 out of the 15 models (93%) simulate a decrease in M-index variability in the future period (red bars) from that in the present-day period (blue bars). This leads to a multi-model mean decrease of 13%, statistically significant above the 95% confidence level, as indicated by the error bars. In b, a total of 13 out of the 15 selected models (87%) simulate an increase in S-index variability in the future climate, with a multi-model mean increase of 16%, statistically significant above the 95% confidence level. Models that simulate an opposite change to the multi-model mean are indicated by green circles. A total of 33 CMIP5 models are used here as outputs from CMCC-CESM and FGOALS-g2 are unavailable.
