Extended Data Fig. 10: Projected mean state change in the tropical Indian Ocean.

Shown are averages over the 20 models that simulate a nonlinear coefficient α greater than 50% of the observed value. a, Multi-model ensemble averaged mean state changes of SON SST (in °C) between the future (2000–2099) and the present-day (1900–1999) climate. b, Same as a, but for the mean state change in surface wind stress (in N m⁻²); changes in wind stress magnitude (in N m⁻²) are indicated by colors. c, Same as a, but for the mean state change in latent heat flux (in W m⁻²). d, Same as a, but for the mean state change in total heat flux (in W m⁻²); positive values indicate an upward transfer of energy. Stippled areas indicate where changes are statistically significant above the 95% confidence level according to a two-tailed Student’s t-tests.