Extended Data Fig. 7: Sensitivity of the results on responses to temperatures to the choice of precipitation seasons.

Effects of species-level predictors on waterbird abundance responses to temperature changes when using precipitation during June, July and August in the model (see Statistical Analyses for more detail). The estimated coefficients with 95% and 50% (thick lines) credible intervals of six explanatory variables for explaining among-species variations in the rate of abundance changes with increasing temperature (a) and the importance of temperature in explaining abundance changes (b). Filled circles indicate variables with 95% credible intervals not overlapping with zero. Only 213 species for which there were estimates at ten or more grid cells were analysed. Note that the estimated coefficients for Absolute latitude (linear) in both (a) and (b) and for Absolute latitude range in (b) are positive while that for Absolute latitude (quadratic) in (b) is negative.