Fig. 4: Probability of annual mass balances in ACN and SVA falling into one of the asynchronous categories between 1950 and 2019.
Random sampling of the SMB-D* estimates (Methods), under consideration of the SMB uncertainties, show the mean probability Pa of asynchronous mass-balance behaviour of the two regions (violet), defined as very likely (>90% probability), likely (>66%), unlikely (<33%) and very unlikely (<10%) according to the IPCC definition28. Bins with less than 5% synchronous years prevail since 2004 (highlighted in yellow). As one bin consists of 15 consecutive years, a minimum of 8 (a)synchronous mass-balance years determine the category. Since all years are sorted into one of the two categories, the probability of synchronous mass-balance behaviour is Ps = 100% – Pa (not shown).
