Extended Data Fig. 6: Signal of decomposed ENSO rainfall change and 30-year average relative SST change.

a, Signal of dynamic (red curve), thermodynamic (blue curve), and reconstructed (black curve) ENSO rainfall change in the EEP in MEM under historical and SSP585 scenario. The horizontal dashed lines denote the MEM threshold value for estimating the MEM detectable signal of dynamic (red), thermodynamic (blue), and reconstructed (black) ENSO rainfall. The vertical solid lines denote the ending year of a 30-year time window when the MEM signal of dynamic (red), thermodynamic (blue), and reconstructed (black) ENSO rainfall exceeds the defined threshold value. b, The same as Fig. 5b, but for the 30-year average relative SST change (see “Decomposition of 30-year average SST and ENSO rainfall change” in Methods).