Extended Data Fig. 2: Temperature changes in a world 2 ^∘C warmer than pre-industrial conditions and associated drivers of uncertainties.

a, Multimodel mean projected change in frequency of hot extreme events (relative to 1950–1980). Stippling indicates locations where at least six out of seven models agree on the sign of the change. b, As in panel a, but for changes in mean temperature. c, Uncertainty in the change in mean temperature due to model-to-model differences (U_MD) relative to the sum of U_IV (uncertainty due to internal climate variability) and U_MD (expressed in percentage; see Methods).