Fig. 1: Projected wind changes, Southern Ocean warming, and their relationship with ENSO response.
From: Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability
a, Multi-model ensemble mean of changes in zonal wind stress between the twenty-first and twentieth centuries scaled by global warming (N m−2 °C−1 of global warming) over 27 CMIP6 models. Stippling indicates where the difference between the two periods is statistically significant above the 90% confidence level based on a Student’s t-test. b, the same as in a, but for the ensemble mean of changes in zonal mean ocean subsurface temperatures (°C °C−1 of global warming). c, Inter-model regression pattern of projected changes in zonal wind stress onto the SO warming indices (N m−2 °C−1), that is, a regional average in the upper 1,000 m between 40° S and 60° S as indicated by the black box in b. Stippling indicates where the correlation is statistically significant above the 90% confidence level based on a Student’s t-test. d, An inter-model relationship between the SO warming index and projected changes in variability of the Niño3.4 index, both scaled by global warming. The purple dashed ellipse indicates 5–95% ranges. Correlation coefficient (Corre. coeff.), slope and P value are also indicated.
