Extended Data Fig. 3: Range shifts predicted using macro- and microclimate data (additional models).
From: Macroclimate data overestimate range shifts of plants in response to climate change
a–d, Mean distances between each grid cell predicted to be occupied historically (1977–1995) and the nearest location with climatically suitable conditions under recent condition (2003–2021). e–h, The magnitude and direction of the shift in the suitability-weighted centroid of each taxa’s distribution. a,e, Results for Erica tetralix modelled at 100 m resolution at each of 73 sites. b,f, The results for all taxa modelled at 0.5° grid resolution, but using temperature estimates for 5 cm above ground. c,g, Results for models fitted across Europe and projected to the Lizard Peninsula (temperature estimates 5 cm above ground). d,h, Results for the Lizard Peninsula using temperature estimates at the height of a standard weather station.
