Extended Data Fig. 7: Emergent constraints on the future global mean surface temperature (GMST).
From: Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere
a, Projected changes in GMST under SSP5-8.5 scenario versus sea surface salinity (SSS) of the NA subpolar region in the present-day climate (1981–2010). The solid black line follows the linear regression of 18 CMIP6 ESMs, while the dashed black lines indicate prediction errors with one standard deviation (and 68% confidence intervals). A solid purple line (shading) indicates the climatology (one standard error) of the World Ocean Atlas 2018 with slope and p-value determined by a two-sided Student’s t-test. b, Probability density functions for the projected GMST changes in the NA before (‘CMIP6 prior’, transparent) and after (‘after constraint’, opaque) when the emergent constraint is applied.
