Extended Data Fig. 8: Emergent constraints on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface warming and the North Atlantic (NA) cumulative carbon uptake in CMIP5 ESMs.
From: Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere
a, Projected changes in NH surface temperature and b, cumulative carbon uptake in the NA under RCP8.5 scenario versus sea surface salinity (SSS) of the NA subpolar region in the present-day climate (1981–2010). The solid black line follows the linear regression of 13 CMIP5 ESMs, while the dashed black lines indicate prediction errors with one standard deviation (and 68% confidence intervals). A solid purple line (shading) indicates the climatology (one standard error) of the World Ocean Atlas 2018 with slope and p-value determined by a two-sided Student’s t-test. c, Probability density functions for the projected NH surface warming and d, cumulative carbon uptake in the NA before (‘CMIP5 prior’, transparent) and after (‘after constraint’, opaque) when the emergent constraint is applied.
