Extended Data Table 1 CMIP5 and CMIP6 models used in this study and the corresponding model centre

ACCESS-ESM1-5 (ref. ⁶²)

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia)

CanESM5 (ref. ⁶³)

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (Canada)

CanESM5-CanOE⁶³

CESM1-BGC⁶⁴

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, (USA)

CESM2 (ref. ⁶⁵)

CESM2-WACCM⁶⁵

CMCC-CESM⁶⁶

Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy)

CMCC-ESM2 (ref. ⁶⁷)

CNRM-ESM2-1 (ref. ⁶⁸)

Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (France)

EC-Earth3-CC⁶⁹

EC-Earth consortium, Rossby Center, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute/SMHI (Sweden)

GFDL-ESM2G⁷⁰

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (US)

GFDL-ESM2M⁷⁰

GFDL-CM4 (ref. ⁷¹)

GFDL-ESM4 (ref. ⁷¹)

GISS-E2-H-CC⁷²

Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US)

GISS-E2-R-CC⁷²

HadGEM2-CC⁷³

Met Office Hadley Centre (UK)

UKESM1-0-LL⁷⁴

IPSL-CM5A-LR⁷⁵

Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (France)

IPSL-CM5A-MR⁷⁵

IPSL-CM6A-LR⁷⁶

MIROC-ESM⁷⁷

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Japan)

MIROC-ESM-CHEM⁷⁷

MIROC-ES2L⁷⁸

MPI-ESM-LR⁷⁹

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Germany)

MPI-ESM-MR⁷⁹

MPI-ESM1-2-LR⁸⁰

MPI-ESM1-2-HR⁸⁰

MRI-ESM2-0 (ref. ⁸¹)

Meteorological Research Institute (Japan)

NorESM2-LM⁸²

Climate modeling Consortium consisting of Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (Norway)

NorESM2-MM⁸²