Extended Data Fig. 3: Simulation of the trend impact on the persistence on surrogate data with natural variability.

change of persistence (Θ, top), δ¹⁸O (middle), and 40-year running trend (bottom) as observed in the Iso2k stack (grey individual datapoints, black, 40-year block average) and for 4 different hypotheses on the intensity of the climatic change induced trend (from 0.05°C/dec to 0.3°C/dec, Δδ¹⁸O ≈ 0.5 × ΔT) with natural variability with a β of 0.6 and an average power at the decadal scale (10 - 40 years band) of 0.52 ‰²/y.