Extended Data Fig. 4: Simulation of the natural variability and trend impact on the persistence on surrogate data. | Nature Climate Change

Extended Data Fig. 4: Simulation of the natural variability and trend impact on the persistence on surrogate data.

From: The quandary of detecting the signature of climate change in Antarctica

Extended Data Fig. 4

change of persistence (Θ, top), δ18O (middle), and 40-year running trend (bottom) as observed in the Iso2k stack (grey individual datapoints, black, 40-year block average) and for 4 different hypotheses on the intensity of the power of the natural variability with a β of 0.6 and average powers at the decadal scale (10 - 40 years band) ranging from 0.3 to 2.2 °C2/yr. The climate change induced trend is set to 0.2°C/dec (Δδ18O ≈ 0.5 × ΔT).

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