Extended Data Fig. 1: Historical and future time-varying contributions to global cumulative heat and carbon uptake.

Time-varying contributions of the Southern Ocean (blue line) and northern oceans (red line) for global heat uptake (left panel) and global carbon uptake (right panel): (a) historical period for all forcing relative to 1851 to 1860 shown from years 1900 to 2020, (b) the historical period for single radiative forcing from greenhouse gases; and (c) future shared socio-economic pathway SSP2–4.5 from years 2015 to 2100 relative to 2015 to 2024. These percentages over their last decade are consistent with those shown in Supplementary Tables 1 and 2. Diagnostics are based on model-mean responses for: (a) 17 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat, 20 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for carbon; (b) 5 CMIP6 models with ensemble means for heat and single ensembles for carbon; and (c) 10 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 17 for carbon.