Extended Data Fig. 7: Feasibility space of CCS deployment in the EU for the acceleration phase in 2030-2040 compared to IPCC AR6 mitigation pathways.
From: Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets
CCS capacity and market penetration achieved by 2030 (x-axis) in R10EUROPE region versus a 10-year moving compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in 2030-2040 (y-axis). 1.5°C- and 2°C-compatible scenarios10,32 shown as dots and their distribution forms the 2D-density plot (from white to yellow). The maximum feasible capacity in 2030 makes up the feasibility frontier along the x-axis (55 Mt/yr or 3.4% of the market potential, Fig. 2). Acceleration for reference cases make up the three feasibility frontiers (black lines) for CCS acceleration in 2030-2040 based on the historical acceleration rates of nuclear, wind, and solar power in EU28+UK as reference cases for CCS (Table 1). Dashed lines illustrate the continuation of these reference cases under higher than realistic CCS capacity by 2030. The hatched zone represents all observations within the feasibility frontier and the shading shows that this frontier is fuzzy27,39. For other (non-EU) reference cases, see Extended Data Table 3. Light-blue and green isolines show different combinations of the two metrics that lead to the median capacity in 1.5°C- and 2°C-compatible pathways regardless of feasibility considerations, whereas dark-blue isoline illustrates the 2040 CCS capacity indicated in the EU Industrial Carbon Management Strategy98. To analyse the feasible range of CCS deployment in the EU by 2040 provided that the EU Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) target is met by 2030 (blue line), we compare it to the feasibility frontiers shown on the figure (Supplementary Note 7). Nuclear power acceleration rate was calculated from a sample of countries that includes the former Yugoslavia. The x-axis of this figure is cut at 162 Mt/yr (10% of market potential) and 60% CAGR, thus excluding 56 1.5°C (33%) and 57 2°C pathways (16%). Density plots are constructed from the entire sample of pathways.
