Extended Data Fig. 3: Maximum growth rates of CCS capacity in the stable growth phase in 1.5°C- and 2°C-compatible IPCC AR6 pathways, compared to maximum growth rates of nuclear, wind and solar power.
From: Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets
a, The range of maximum annual growth rates normalised to the market size in 2022 in IPCC AR6 pathways10,32 (G2022, n=218 for 1.5°C and n=418 for 2°C; 5 pathways envision maximum growth after 2100 and thus are excluded from this analysis). b, The range of maximum annual growth rates normalised to the market size the year it is achieved (GTMax, n=568; 68 scenarios failed to produce Mt due to missing variables, see Extended Data Fig. 2 and Methods). c and d, The distribution of maximum growth rates (GTMax) and the years when it is achieved (TMax). 1.5°C- and 2°C-compatible pathways (n=192 for 1.5°C - panel c and n=376 for 2°C - panel d) shown as dots and their distribution forms the 2D-density plot (from white to yellow). The diameter of circles illustrates the saturation level of CCS capacity (Gt/yr) modelled for each pathway. e and f, The year of maximum annual growth (TMax, n=218 for 1.5°C and n=418 for 2°C). Each growth parameter is calculated as the average between logistic and Gompertz growth model outputs (Methods). In panels a, b, e, f, the box-plots show the interquartile range (IQR) of growth parameters in the pathway sample with the median marked with a black line and whiskers extending from the IQR range to nonoutlier minimum and maximum. In panels a-d, grey horizontal zones illustrate interquartile (IQR) ranges of GTMax in reference cases at the national scale (n=20 for nuclear, n=35 for wind, n=24 for solar power), whereas the solid black lines illustrate reference cases of empirically observed GTMax of wind and nuclear and R3 of solar power deployment globally55. Note: this figure does not display 16 outliers (2% of the sample) where GTMax or G2022>7%, or 2095 > TMax < 2100 - these observations are still included in the calculation of density distribution in panels c, d and interquartile ranges in panels a, b.
