Table 2 Feasible upper bounds of CCS capacity in 2030 and 2040 estimated from reference cases and compared to the IPCC AR6 pathways

Formative phase (pre-2030) assumptions	Current plans and 88% failure	Current plans and 76% failure	Current plans and 45% failure	Plans doubling and 45% failure
CCS capacity in 2030	0.07	0.11	0.2	0.37
IPCC AR6 capacity in 2030	2 °C: 0.3 [0.04–0.6]		1.5 °C: 0.9 [0.4–1.5]
Acceleration in 2030–2040	same as wind
CAGR for reference period CCS capacity in 2040	30% 0.95	27% 1.2	26% 2.0	22% 2.6
	same as nuclear
CAGR for reference period CCS capacity in 2040	35% 1.4	33% 1.9	30% 2.8	28% 4.3
	same as solar
CAGR for reference period CCS capacity in 2040	41% 2.2	37% 2.5	31% 3.0	NA NA
IPCC AR6 capacity in 2040	2 °C: 2.4 [1.6–3.9]		1.5 °C: 3.8 [2.5–7.1]

The columns illustrate the CCS capacity in 2030 based on different assumptions of near-term CCS plans and failure rates (Fig. 2). The rows illustrate 10-year CAGRs for each reference case corresponding to a comparable level of market penetration and the resulting CCS capacity by 2040. Values are in GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ unless otherwise indicated. The reference case growth rates in the acceleration phase reported in this table are also illustrated in Fig. 3. Solar power started accelerating recently, so it is not possible to measure its CAGR for the most optimistic outcome of the formative phase. IPCC pathways are in bold and the IQRs of CCS capacity in the IPCC pathways are indicated in square brackets. See Methods and Table 1 for details of reference cases.

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