Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age would increase China’s household carbon footprint mainly by boosting population and labour. Policymakers should synergize policies targeting population ageing and climate change, which are both crucial for sustainable development.
Recommendations for policy
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Assessing the climate impact is crucial when developing fertility and retirement policies.
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Promoting greener consumption and sustainable lifestyles, particularly among young people, is an effective measure to reduce household carbon footprints in China.
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Reducing income and consumption disparities between age groups could alleviate the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on household carbon footprints.
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Delaying retirement can considerably lower dependency ratios and enhance demographic dividends, although it may increase household carbon footprints.
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Policymakers need to consider the synergy between policies addressing population ageing and those addressing climate change.
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Further reading
Mi, Z. et al. Economic development and converging household carbon footprints in China. Nat. Sustain. 3, 529–537 (2020). This paper provides an environmentally extended multiregional input–output analysis to estimate household carbon footprints in China.
Peng, X. China’s demographic history and future challenges. Science 333, 581–587 (2011). This literature review provides a systematic overview of China’s demographic change and its impacts.
Yu, B., Wei, Y., Kei, G. & Matsuoka, Y. Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households. Nat. Energy 3, 109–118 (2018). This paper analyses the impacts of demographic transitions on energy consumption and carbon emissions in Chinese households.
Zeng, Y. & Hesketh, T. The effects of China’s universal two-child policy. Lancet 388, 1930–1938 (2016). This literature review documents evidence for the potential effects of China’s universal two-child policy on demographic, health, social and environmental aspects.
Zheng, H. et al. Ageing society in developed countries challenges carbon mitigation. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 241–248 (2022). This paper shows that older people in developed countries play a leading role in driving up greenhouse gas emissions due to their carbon-intensive lifestyle.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71971007 and 72374144), the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (JQ21033), the National Social Science Fund of China Key Research Project (23VRC063), the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF (GZC20241864) and the China Scholarship Council (201906020094).
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Tang, L., Yang, J., Zheng, J. et al. Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age increase China’s carbon emissions. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 1228–1229 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02145-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02145-5
