Extended Data Fig. 9: Spongy moth and E. maimaiga dynamics in Michigan.
From: Climate change drives reduced biocontrol of the invasive spongy moth
The upper panel shows a time series of spongy moth dynamics following the insect’s invasion of the state in the mid-1980s. The middle panel shows the same data beginning in 2009, to facilitate comparison to the measurements of E. maimaiga and baculovirus infection rates in the bottom panel. In the bottom panel the black lines and symbols show the cumulative fraction infected with E. maimaiga, while the gray lines and symbols show the cumulative fraction infected with the baculovirus. Error bars show one standard error of the mean, calculated from the cumulative fraction infected across 6 sites in 2010-2012 and 7 sites in 2021-2023 (Table S3 in the Supplemental Information). Because the 2021/2023 data were collected entirely in southern Michigan, for purposes of comparison we show values of the fraction infected for southern Michigan in 2010-2012 as red (E. maimaiga) and pink (baculovirus) points. A southern Michigan site from 2011 and a northern Michigan site from 2012 are not included because for those sites infection rates were zero for the virus and close to zero for the fungus.
