Fig. 1: Lake surface heatwaves under climate change.
a–d, Simulated changes in occurrence (a), duration (b), intensity (c) and cumulative intensity (d) of lake surface heatwaves from 1980 to 2022. e–h, Changes in no-escape events for aquatic species, including days without thermal escape (e), spatial variability in events (f), histogram comparisons between mixed and stratifying lakes (g) and overall change in events (2000–2022 relative to 1980–1999) (h). i–l, The vertical escape depth: temporal variability (i), spatial variability (j), histogram for stratified lakes (k) and overall change (l). Boxplots (n = 16,455) summarize changes (blue/red: first/second periods), with the central mark indicating the median and the bottom and top edges of the boxes indicating the 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively. The whiskers extend to the most extreme data points not considered outliers; shaded regions in the time series represent standard deviation and the solid line represents the mean; trends are shown in the top-left corners. Basemaps in f, h, j and l made with Natural Earth.
