Extended Data Fig. 10: Future changes in subsurface and lake bottom heatwaves.

(a-d) Vertical variability in lake heatwave metrics by 2080–2099 under RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, relative to 1980-2022. Profiles include stratifying lakes that are less or equal to 10 m in depth, with medians shown as central lines and shaded regions as median absolute deviation (MAD). Panels (e–j) depict end-of-century changes in (e) no-escape days, (f) vertical escape distance, and (g–j) occurrence, duration, intensity, and cumulative intensity of bottom heatwaves (all lakes, including >10 m depth). In each box plot (n = 166,455), the central mark indicates the median, and the bottom and top edges of the boxes indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively. The whiskers extend to the most extreme data points not considered outliers.