Fig. 3: Model agreement on land allocation for CDR deployment within biodiversity areas.

The figures are based on the focus scenario SSP2-26 in 2100 and the five considered model frameworks AIM, GCAM, GLOBIOM, IMAGE and REMIND-MAgPIE. The remaining refugia at 1.8 °C are shown in light grey, whereas refugia areas that are also resilient biodiversity hotspots are shown in dark grey. CDR land allocation within refugia areas that could potentially benefit from such land interventions is shown in yellow, while refugia areas that such land interventions would likely harm are shown in red. The CDR land allocation outside of refugia areas is not shown. At least two out of the five considered models need to allocate at least 10% of a grid cell surface for CDR deployment within a climate refugia area to be mapped in this figure. a, The results for forestation (afforestation, reforestation and forest restoration). b, The results for BECCS. Supplementary results, based on alternative minimum thresholds for model agreement and relative cell allocation are presented in the Supplementary Information. Basemaps were generated in Cartopy using Natural Earth data⁸⁹.