Zero-emission trucks will benefit from rapidly falling costs of batteries and fuel cells, which will enable their fast market diffusion. Industry and policy must prepare for battery-electric trucks with respect to their manufacturing and supply, adequate charging infrastructure and electricity grid expansions, as well as regulation.
Messages for policy
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The costs of zero-emission truck technologies are expected to decline substantially until 2030, implying a need for establishing large-scale production facilities to boost their market diffusion.
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Battery-electric trucks can be expected to reach cost parity in due course requiring only short-term policy incentives, with lower public spending than for fuel cell trucks.
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Support for battery-electric trucks as the most likely primary technology is a no-regret policy. This will guide the market and reduce uncertainties, which is essential for fast transition.
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Electricity grids and charging infrastructure must be prepared soon to avoid delays in the deployment of zero-emission trucks, which requires immediate investment.
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Further Reading
Plötz, P. Hydrogen technology is unlikely to play a major role in sustainable road transport. Nat. Electron. 5, 8–10 (2022). This study discusses the future roles of electricity and hydrogen in low-carbon road transport.
International Transport Forum. How Governments can Bring Low-emission Trucks to Our Roads – and Fast Policy Paper No. 127 (OECD Publishing, 2023). This study explains how policy decisions can be made among alternative fuel technologies for trucks despite remaining uncertainty.
Noll, B., Del Val, S., Schmidt, T. S. & Steffen, B. Analyzing the competitiveness of low-carbon drive-technologies in road-freight: A total cost of ownership analysis in Europe. Appl. Energy 306, 118079 (2022). This study provides an overview of total costs of ownership for low- or zero-emission truck technologies.
Nykvist, B. & Olsson, O. The feasibility of heavy battery electric trucks. Joule 5, 901–913 (2021). This study discusses the feasibility of different truck operations despite a limited range of battery-electric trucks.
Muratori, M., Borlaug, B., Ledna, C., Jadun, P. & Kailas, A. Road to zero: Research and industry perspectives on zero-emission commercial vehicles. iScience 26, 106751 (2023). This study explains research needs for zero-emission truck technologies.
Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge funding from the EU STORM project (grant number 101006700: P.P., D.S.) by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program; the HoLa project (FKZ 03EMF0404A: P.P., D.S., S.L.) by the German Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport; and the BEMA project (FKZ 03XP0272B: S.L., A.S.) by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research.
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Link, S., Stephan, A., Speth, D. et al. Declining costs imply fast market uptake of zero-emission trucks. Nat Energy 9, 924–925 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01555-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01555-1
