Fig. 5: The green hydrogen implementation gap in 2030.

a–d, Cost gap between green hydrogen and natural gas (a,b) and between green hydrogen and grey hydrogen (c,d) without carbon pricing (a,c) and with an ambitious carbon price pathway (b,d) that is in line with reaching EU climate targets⁴¹ (US$149 tCO₂⁻¹ in 2030, US$246 tCO₂⁻¹ in 2040 and US$407 tCO₂⁻¹ in 2050, see Extended Data Table 3). These two markets cover over 90% of the project announcements by 2030 (Extended Data Fig. 2). The represented end uses are shown next to each row. Extended Data Fig. 5 displays the full set of competition across all end uses, covering four other markets and different hydrogen-based electrofuels. The red double-headed arrows and the light-red shading indicate the cost gap that needs to be bridged by subsidies. The stacked bars indicate the decomposition of the LCOH and the total cost of the fossil competitor for selected years (2024, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045). For easier visualization, the LCOH bar is shown on the left and the fossil competitor bar on the right. Our 2030 LCOH estimates are in line with recent studies (see Extended Data Fig. 4). LHV, lower hydrogen value. O&M, operations and maintenance. CHP, combined heat and power. NA, not available (end use unknown). e,f, Subsidies required to bridge the cost gap across all end uses to realize all project announcements until 2030 on time, without carbon pricing (e) and with carbon pricing (f). The bars show the required annual subsidies (left axis) and the lines show the required cumulative subsidies (right axis). g, Cumulative subsidies required to realize all project announcements by 2030 compared with globally announced hydrogen subsidies as of September 2023 from BloombergNEF (BNEF)⁴³. Our estimate takes currently implemented demand-side policies into account (see Methods and Supplementary Fig. 15). Without carbon pricing, US$1.3 trillion of subsidies are required to realize all projects announced until 2030 (the values in parentheses show the ranges of more progressive and conservative parameters, see Extended Data Fig. 6). Note that e and f show only the subsidies required for green hydrogen project announcements until 2030. Staying on a 1.5 °C scenario requires substantial further subsidies after 2030 (Supplementary Fig. 16 and Table 1).