Fig. 1: Change in global final energy use and direct CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion in the buildings and transport sectors.

a,b, Final energy use in buildings (a) and transport (b). c,d, CO₂ emissions from buildings (c) and transport (d). Results are presented relative to 2015 levels to reduce model differences resulting from calibration against different historical datasets. All scenarios have current NPi. Markers indicate individual model results and bars depict the model ranges. The grey hatches and markers represent the no-interaction estimates, which approximate the combined impact of each individual strategy relative to NPi-REF by multiplying their respective effects. MESSAGEix-Buildings results are shown, but for cross-sectoral consistency are not factored into the averages and ranges (Methods). Projections for activity patterns in the reference scenario (floorspace, passenger-kilometres and freight tonne-kilometres) are provided in Supplementary Information 5. Subsectoral projections for the residential, commercial, passenger and freight sectors are available in Supplementary Information 8.