Extended Data Fig. 4: The correlations of geologic processes with (87Sr/86Sr)sw and their time lags, using simulated input time series incorporating uncertainty estimates.
From: Global chemical weathering dominated by continental arcs since the mid-Palaeozoic
Similar to Extended Data Fig. 3, the plots show the empirical rank correlations (CEmp), Bayesian Network correlations (CBN), and BN conditional rank correlations (CCond), at time lags from 0 to 50 Myr in 2.5 Myr intervals. The difference here is that the model incorporates all the input uncertainty distributions (shown in Extended Data Fig. 2, and Supplementary Data File S2). Note that including these uncertainty distributions does not cause any major changes in the strength of correlations, or the apparent response timescales. The main changes (those above the confidence interval [CI] threshold) are shown by the vertical dashed lines (red for gain, blue for loss of Ccond); this includes an apparent weakening of the effects of atmospheric CO2 (likely due to the large uncertainty in this variable; Extended Data Fig. 2). We note however that this is replaced by ‘ice latitude’—a related proxy for climate state—at similar time lags. CI thresholds (dashed line, denoted t) are unchanged as these are estimates based on the resolution of the original input data.
