Extended Data Fig. 9: Schematic illustration of how seismicity rate changes are derived from stress imparted to focal mechanisms. | Nature Geoscience

Extended Data Fig. 9: Schematic illustration of how seismicity rate changes are derived from stress imparted to focal mechanisms.

From: Central shutdown and surrounding activation of aftershocks from megathrust earthquake stress transfer

Extended Data Fig. 9

a, Each focal mechanism is a proxy for a small-to-moderate fault on which that earthquake stuck (top panel in a). These earthquakes then receive coseismic stress from a nearby mainshock (second panel in a), some promoting failure (red) and some inhibiting failure (blue). The applied stress amplifies or diminishes the background seismicity rate (bottom panel in a), according the the seismicity rate equation21. Finally, to make a map of forecast seismicity as in Fig. 2b, the updated numbers on the focal mechanism plots in the bottom panel in a are spatially smoothed by a moving kernel on the grid nodes. This illustration is from ref. 56. b, Map of the Learning Period earthquakes (M ≥ 6.5 during 3-11-2011 to 3-10-2016) that are used in the model. Panel a reproduced with permission from ref. 45, Seismological Society of America.

Back to article page