Fig. 1: Drying trend over southern Central Asia.
From: Agricultural drought over water-scarce Central Asia aggravated by internal climate variability
a, Surface soil moisture content anomaly (%) in AMJ 2021 relative to the climatological mean (1995–2014) derived from ERA5-Land. b, The trends of AMJ surface soil moisture content anomaly (% per decade) during 1992–2020 derived from ERA5-Land. Stippling indicates that the linear trends are significant at the 10% level according to the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. c, The trends in AMJ surface soil moisture content (% per decade) during 1950–1992 (grey) and 1992–2020 (blue) over southern Central Asia (red box in b) obtained from ERA5-Land, GLDAS (ended 2014), GLEAM and ESACCI, and the ensemble mean of CESM1-CAM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and MPI-ESM-LR. The ensemble mean is calculated based on 40, 30 and 100 members for the three models, respectively. The error bars denote the range of the trends derived from all members for each model. As GLEAM and ESACCI are started in 1980 and 1978, respectively, the trends in P1 are not calculated.
