Fig. 2: Scaling of precipitation extremes with surface dew point temperature.
a, P99 (Td) for rainfall classified as convective (blue), using rcv = 5 km, stratiform (red), rst = 300 km and τst = 3 h, and all precipitation (black). Data are presented as the 99th percentile with 95% confidence intervals (shadings) estimated using a non-parametric method based on the binomial distribution and its normal approximation for large sample sizes (Methods). Dashed light and dark grey curves indicate 1 × CC and 2 × CC rates (Methods). b, Analogous to a but conditional on rainfall within MCSs using rcv = 10 km. For the stratiform type, rst = 30 km and τst = 10 min were used. The black curve represents all precipitation within MCSs, irrespective of lightning flashes. c, Normalized histograms (PDF, probability density functions) for each of the three types shown in a. Shaded grey area indicates convective fraction (right vertical axis; note the logarithmic scale). d, Analogous to c but conditioned on precipitation within MCSs. The convective fraction curves shown in c and d increase at rate of ≈ 41% °C−1 and ≈ 25% °C−1 (respectively) with Td. Note the logarithmic vertical axis scaling in a and b and c and d, right axis.
