Extended Data Fig. 2: Decomposition of observed SSTA for the AGCM experiments.

The June-December 2023 averaged (a) SSTA (°C), (b) detrended SSTA component, and (c) the background SST trend component for the period 1982-2023, obtained by subtracting (b) from (a). All anomalies are calculated with reference to the 1982–2022 climatological values. Time series of (d) detrended and trended Niño3 index as well as (e) SSTAs averaged over the tropical North Atlantic (0-70°W, equator-30°N) and tropical western Indian Ocean (40°E-70°E, 10°S-10°N).