Fig. 4: Overcooling and accompanying tropical cyclone intensity underestimation in models.
From: Weak self-induced cooling of tropical cyclones amid fast sea surface warming
a, Average inner-core SST cooling as observed (red, n = 1,328), simulated by Model-Ensemble and individual HighResMIP models of CMIP6 (blue, n = 7,599; 4,190; 2,524; 41; 264 and 580). b, Probability density function (PDF) of TC intensity from the IBTrACS records (red) and the HighResMIP Model-Ensemble (blue). c, Comparison of average inner-core SST cooling (blue) and TC intensity underestimation (red) between control (CTL, n = 1,783) and experimental (EXP, n = 1,990) runs without and with a reduced inner-core cooling, respectively, based on the COAWST model. In all panels, bars and error bars indicate mean and the corresponding 95% confidence interval values. All model outputs within CMIP6 are from high-resolution experiments. Climate models overestimate inner-core cooling and underestimate tropical cyclone intensity. Reducing this cold bias increases average cyclone intensity.
