Extended Data Fig. 10: A synthesis of the cascade linking deepening ALT, summer fire-prone meteorological conditions, above-ground vegetation growth, and below-ground fuel dryness, as analyzed using a structural equation model (SEM). | Nature Geoscience

Extended Data Fig. 10: A synthesis of the cascade linking deepening ALT, summer fire-prone meteorological conditions, above-ground vegetation growth, and below-ground fuel dryness, as analyzed using a structural equation model (SEM).

From: Amplified Arctic–boreal fire regimes from permafrost thaw feedbacks

Extended Data Fig. 10: A synthesis of the cascade linking deepening ALT, summer fire-prone meteorological conditions, above-ground vegetation growth, and below-ground fuel dryness, as analyzed using a structural equation model (SEM).The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Three pathways were designed to describe the feedback chains triggered by the deepening ALT and their interactions. Red arrows indicate positive path coefficients or increased effects, while green arrows indicate negative path coefficients or decreased effects. The SEM was conducted at the grid-cell level. Maps between connected variables show the spatial pattern of path coefficients across the Arctic-boreal region. FVC, fractional vegetation coverage; SM, surface soil moisture content; H: flux of surface sensible heat; T, air temperature; RH, relative humidity; VPD, vapor pressure deficit; CWD, climatic water deficit; FFMC, fine fuel moisture code; DMC, duff moisture code; DC, drought code. Maps created with ArcGIS (v.10.8) using basemap data from the IPCC-WG1 Atlas GitHub repository80.

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