Fig. 2: Impact of COVID-19 under different scenarios.

a–i, Evolution of the number of new cases (a,d,g), the outbreak size (b,e,h) and the effective reproductive number (c,f,i) as a function of time in each situation studied. Results for the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics are shown for the unmitigated scenario (a–c) and the two social-distancing interventions considered: LIFT (d–f) and LET (g,h) scenarios. In both LIFT and LET scenarios, we considered the closure of schools and non-essential places for eight weeks. This is the strictest lockdown period, which is followed by a partial lifting of the stay-at-home policy, the duration of which is set to four weeks. During the partial lifting, all places in the community layer are open except mass-gathering locations (such as restaurants, theatres, and others; see Supplementary Information). Finally, a full reopening takes place after the period of partial lifting ends (relevant events are marked with vertical lines). In d–f, no other measures are adopted concurrently to the lifting of the restrictions, whereas in g–i, the reopening is accompanied by an active policy consisting of testing the symptomatic individuals, home isolating them and quarantining (Q.) their household and the households of a fraction of their contacts, as indicated. Note that the vertical scales of graphs in a,d,g are not the same and that both the number of new cases and total cases are per 1,000 inhabitants. x-axes show dates in 2020. Feb, February; Mar, March; Apr, April; Jun, June; Jul, July; Aug, August; Sep, September; Oct, October; Nov, November; Dec, December. In all panels, the solid line represents the average over 10,000 simulations and the shaded region represents the 95% CI.