Table 1 Exposure to COVID-19 vaccine misinformation reduces intent to accept a COVID-19 vaccine relative to exposure to factually correct information

From: Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on vaccination intent in the UK and USA

Distribution of vaccination intent

Vaccination intent

UK

USA

Self

Others

Self

Others

Pre-exposure P(W)

Yes, definitely

54.1 (52.5, 55.7)

63.7 (62.2, 65.1)

42.5 (41.0, 44.1)

53.3 (51.8, 54.9)

Unsure, lean yes

31.9 (30.5, 33.3)

24.7 (23.4, 26.1)

30.0 (28.6, 31.4)

24.7 (23.3, 26.0)

Unsure, lean no

8.0 (7.1, 8.9)

7.0 (6.2, 7.8)

12.4 (11.4, 13.5)

10.0 (9.2, 11.0)

No, definitely not

6.0 (5.3, 6.8)

4.5 (3.9, 5.2)

15.0 (14.0, 16.1)

12.0 (11.1, 13.1)

Post-exposure P(Y|T) (treatment group)

Yes, definitely

48.6 (46.9, 50.2)

55.7 (54.1, 57.4)

39.8 (38.2, 41.5)

46.4 (44.8, 48.1)

Unsure, lean yes

31.1 (29.5, 32.6)

27.9 (26.4, 29.4)

28.7 (27.1, 30.3)

26.7 (25.1, 28.2)

Unsure, lean no

11.3 (10.2, 12.4)

9.6 (8.6, 10.6)

14.0 (12.9, 15.2)

11.7 (10.7, 12.8)

No, definitely not

9.1 (8.2, 10.0)

6.8 (6.0, 7.6)

17.5 (16.3, 18.7)

15.2 (14.1, 16.4)

Post-exposure P(Y|C) (control group)

Yes, definitely

54.8 (52.6, 57.1)

61.5 (59.3, 63.7)

46.3 (44.0, 48.5)

52.9 (50.6, 55.0)

Unsure, lean yes

30.9 (28.6, 33.2)

25.6 (23.4, 27.9)

25.4 (23.0, 27.8)

22.5 (20.2, 24.9)

Unsure, lean no

8.5 (7.0, 10.2)

7.2 (5.8, 8.7)

12.5 (10.7, 14.4)

11.3 (9.5, 13.1)

No, definitely not

5.8 (4.6, 7.0)

5.7 (4.6, 6.9)

15.9 (14.2, 17.5)

13.4 (11.8, 15.0)

Treatment effect Δ(Y) = P(Y|T) − P(Y|C)

Yes, definitely

−6.2 (−8.5, −3.9)

−5.7 (−7.9, −3.5)

−6.4 (−8.8, −4.0)

−6.5 (−8.8, −4.1)

Unsure, lean yes

0.2 (−2.5, 2.8)

2.3 (−0.3, 4.8)

3.3 (0.6, 5.9)

4.2 (1.5, 6.9)

Unsure, lean no

2.7 (1.0, 4.5)

2.3 (0.7, 4.0)

1.5 (−0.6, 3.5)

0.4 (−1.7, 2.4)

No, definitely not

3.3 (2.0, 4.6)

1.1 (−0.1, 2.3)

1.6 (−0.1, 3.3)

1.9 (0.3, 3.5)

  1. The pre- and post-exposure intent to accept a COVID-19 vaccine are shown for the UK and the USA in the first three rows. The treatment effects of exposure to misinformation relative to factual information on the post-exposure responses Y that is Δ(Y) are shown in the final row as percentage point changes in the number of people with intent Y after exposure to misinformation relative to factual information. Model probabilities have been quoted as percentages to aid interpretation. Values in parentheses indicate 95% percentile intervals (PI) with values in bold indicating PIs that do not include 0.
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