Fig. 2: Burden of COVID-19 in the main analysis.
a, Cumulative number of symptomatic cases as estimated under the different scenarios in the absence or presence of vaccination over the simulated 2-year period. No vaccination + no NPIs with Rt = 2.5 at the beginning of the outbreak is called the ‘reference scenario’, described using dark orange bars. Light-yellow bars indicate scenarios including vaccination and/or different levels of NPIs. b, Reduction in the cumulative number of symptomatic cases with respect to the reference scenario. Orange bars and values written in black indicate the contribution of NPIs; blue bars and values written in black indicate the overall contribution of vaccination and NPIs, while the values written in white indicate net contribution of vaccination. c,d, As in a,b but for hospitalized cases. e,f, As in a,b but for cases admitted to ICU. g,h, As in a,b but for deaths. Number denotes median, and error bars denote quantiles 0.025 and 0.975.
