Table 1 Change in adherence estimates with aggregated physical distancing as dependent variable (survey data)

From: A worldwide assessment of changes in adherence to COVID-19 protective behaviours and hypothesized pandemic fatigue

	Model 1			Model 2			Model 3			Model 4
	Aggr. physical distancing			Aggr. physical distancing			Aggr. physical distancing (residuals)			Aggr. physical distancing
	Estimate	CI	P	Estimate	CI	P	Estimate	CI	P	Estimate	CI	P
Level 1
Time				−0.079	−0.086 to −0.071	<0.001	−0.023	−0.028 to −0.019	<0.001	−0.076	−0.083 to −0.068	<0.001
Time²				0.032	0.028 to 0.035	<0.001	0.016	0.013 to 0.018	<0.001	0.020	0.016 to 0.025	<0.001
School closing	0.004	0.004 to 0.005	<0.001	0.001	0.001 to 0.002	0.018				0.001	0.001 to 0.002	0.010
Workplace closing	0.003	0.002 to 0.004	<0.001	−0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.284				−0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.598
Cancel public events	0.001	0.001 to 0.002	0.001	0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.471				0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.578
Restrictions on gatherings	0.003	0.003 to 0.004	<0.001	0.001	0.001 to 0.002	<0.001				0.001	0.001 to 0.002	<0.001
Close public transport	0.003	0.002 to 0.003	<0.001	0.003	0.003 to 0.004	<0.001				0.003	0.002 to 0.004	<0.001
Stay at home req.	0.002	0.001 to 0.003	<0.001	0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.126				0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.252
Restrictions on internal movements	0.003	0.002 to 0.003	<0.001	0.002	0.001 to 0.002	<0.001				0.002	0.001 to 0.002	<0.001
International travel controls	0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.539	−0.001	−0.002 to −0.001	<0.001				−0.001	−0.002 to −0.001	<0.001
Mean temperature										−0.012	−0.016 to −0.009	<0.001
COVID-19 searches										0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.243
Increase in deaths period										−0.016	−0.036 to 0.004	0.123
Level 2
Female				0.199	0.177 to 0.221	<0.001	0.050	0.033 to 0.067	<0.001	0.199	0.177 to 0.221	<0.001
Age				0.006	0.005 to 0.007	<0.001	0.002	0.001 to 0.002	<0.001	0.006	0.005 to 0.007	<0.001
Observations	6,507			6,507			6,507			6,507
Number of countries (level 3)	14			14			14			14
Number of cohorts per country (level 2)	24			24			24			24
R² (level 1)	0.497			0.634			0.090			0.639
Var. (r_1jk)				0.001			0.0002			0.001
Var. (r_2jk)				0.0004			<0.001			0.0004

Models 1, 2 and 4 have the aggregated physical distancing measure (from survey data) as the dependent variable. Model 3 has the residuals from model 1 as the dependent variable. Coefficients were estimated in multi-level models using a pseudo-panel from the 14-country survey data and three levels: time (level 1, defined by 10-day intervals), cohorts (level 2, defined by interaction of country, 5-year age ranges and gender) and countries (level 3). Time refers to time since first required measure. Coefficients of time and time² are random effects at cohort level, with unrestricted covariances across random effects and a first-order auto-regressive residuals covariance structure. The intra-class correlation coefficient in the null model is 0.37 at country level and 0.07 at cohort level. Residuals models were estimated with independent random effects for linear and quadratic time terms due to convergence issues. Results hold with time and time² random effects at the country level and with alternative pseudo-panel definitions, as well as with fixed-effects models and clustered standard errors at the country level using both pseudo-panels and individual disaggregated survey data (Supplementary Table 1b,d).

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Table 1 Change in adherence estimates with aggregated physical distancing as dependent variable (survey data)

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