Table 2 Change in adherence estimates with retail and recreation visits as dependent variable (mobility data)

From: A worldwide assessment of changes in adherence to COVID-19 protective behaviours and hypothesized pandemic fatigue

	Model 1			Model 2			Model 3			Model 4
	Retail and recreation visits			Retail and recreation visits			Retail and recreation visits (residuals)			Retail and recreation visits
	Estimate	CI	P	Estimate	CI	P	Estimate	CI	P	Estimate	CI	P
Level 1
Time				2.704	2.350 to 3.058	<0.001	2.662	2.325 to 2.999	<0.001	2.203	1.839 to 2.568	<0.001
Time²				−0.702	−0.839 to −0.565	<0.001	−0.692	−0.815 to −0.569	<0.001	−0.535	−0.677 to −0.393	<0.001
School closing	−0.110	−0.124 to −0.096	<0.001	−0.102	−0.114 to −0.089	<0.001				−0.104	−0.116 to −0.092	<0.001
Workplace closing	−0.126	−0.141 to −0.111	<0.001	−0.153	−0.166 to −0.141	<0.001				−0.154	−0.166 to −0.142	<0.001
Cancel public events	−0.039	−0.053 to −0.025	<0.001	−0.006	−0.018 to –0.007	0.370				−0.007	−0.020 to 0.005	0.244
Restrictions on gatherings	−0.023	−0.037 to −0.009	0.002	−0.061	−0.073 to −0.049	<0.001				−0.065	−0.077 to −0.053	<0.001
Close public transport	−0.087	−0.101 to −0.072	<0.001	−0.091	−0.103 to −0.079	<0.001				−0.087	−0.099 to −0.075	<0.001
Stay at home req.	−0.090	−0.107 to −0.073	<0.001	−0.125	−0.140 to −0.110	<0.001				−0.117	−0.132 to −0.103	<0.001
Restrictions on internal movements	−0.063	−0.075 to −0.051	<0.001	−0.063	−0.073 to −0.053	<0.001				−0.062	−0.072 to −0.052	<0.001
International travel controls	−0.073	−0.088 to −0.057	<0.001	−0.066	−0.080 to −0.053	<0.001				−0.063	−0.077 to −0.050	<0.001
COVID-19 searches										−0.106	−0.119 to −0.092	<0.001
Increase in deaths period										−0.329	−0.552 to −0.105	0.004
Mean temperature										−0.144	−0.514 to 0.225	0.445
Northern Hemisphere x Mean temperature										0.503	0.111 to 0.896	0.012
Level 2
Northern Hemisphere										−12.685	−22.475 to −2.895	0.011
Observations	32,760			32,760			32,760			30,965
Number of countries (level 2)	124			124			124			120
R² (level 1)	0.516			0.759			0.453			0.771
Var. (r_1jk)				3.572			3.307			3.622
Var. (r_2jk)				0.556			0.430			0.478

Models 1, 2 and 4 have the change in retail and recreation visits as the dependent variable. Model 3 has the residuals from model 1 as the dependent variable. Coefficients were estimated in multi-level models with two levels: time (level 1, days) and countries (level 2). Time refers to time since first required measure. Coefficients of time and time² are random effects at the country level, with unrestricted covariances across random effects and a first-order auto-regressive residual covariance structure. The intra-class correlation coefficient in the null model is 0.37 at country level. Residuals models were estimated with independent random effects for linear and quadratic time terms due to convergence issues. Results hold in OLS models with dummy variables representing countries (fixed effects) and clustered standard errors at country level (Supplementary Table 1c).

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Table 2 Change in adherence estimates with retail and recreation visits as dependent variable (mobility data)

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