Table 4 Change in adherence estimates with mask wearing as dependent variable (survey data)

From: A worldwide assessment of changes in adherence to COVID-19 protective behaviours and hypothesized pandemic fatigue

	Model 1			Model 2			Model 3			Model 4
	Mask wearing			Mask wearing			Mask wearing (residuals)			Mask wearing
	Estimate	CI	P	Estimate	CI	P	Estimate	CI	P	Estimate	CI	P
Level 1
Time				0.147	0.130 to 0.164	<0.001	0.049	0.037 to 0.062	<0.001	0.157	0.140 to 0.174	<0.001
Time²				−0.006	−0.011 to 0.001	0.052	0.009	0.004 to 0.013	<0.001	−0.021	−0.028 to −0.013	<0.001
School closing	−0.004	−0.005 to −0.003	<0.001	−0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.190				−0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.208
Workplace closing	−0.002	−0.003 to −0.001	0.007	−0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.800				−0.001	−0.001 to 0.001	0.818
Cancel public events	0.001	0.001 to 0.002	<0.001	0.002	0.001 to 0.003	<0.001				0.002	0.001 to 0.002	<0.001
Restrictions on gatherings	0.002	0.002 to 0.003	<0.001	0.001	0.001 to 0.002	0.018				0.001	0.001 to 0.002	0.001
Close public transport	0.001	−0.001 to 0.002	0.382	0.001	−0.001 to 0.002	0.071				0.001	−0.001 to 0.002	0.356
Stay at home req.	−0.004	−0.005 to −0.002	<0.001	−0.004	−0.005 to −0.003	<0.001				−0.004	−0.005 to −0.003	<0.001
Restrictions on internal movements	0.001	0.001 to 0.002	0.001	0.003	0.002 to 0.004	<0.001				0.003	0.003 to 0.004	<0.001
International travel controls	0.001	−0.001 to 0.002	0.208	−0.001	−0.002 to 0.001	0.052				−0.001	−0.002 to 0.001	0.058
Facial coverings	0.017	0.016 to 0.018	<0.001	0.009	0.008 to 0.010	<0.001				0.009	0.007 to 0.010	<0.001
Mean temperature										−0.018	−0.023 to −0.013	<0.001
COVID-19 searches										−0.001	−0.002 to −0.001	0.024
Increase in deaths period										0.005	−0.021 to 0.030	0.721
Level 2
Female				0.131	0.092 to 0.170	<0.001	0.083	0.037 to 0.129	<0.001	0.130	0.091 to 0.169	<0.001
Age				−0.001	−0.002 to 0.001	0.052	−0.002	−0.003 to −0.001	0.007	−0.001	−0.002 to −0.001	0.049
Observations	6,507			6,507			6,507			6,507
Number of countries (level 3)	14			14			14			14
Number of cohorts per country (level 2)	24			24			24			24
R² (level 1)	0.539			0.778			0.434			0.781
Var. (r_1jk)				0.013			0.011			0.012
Var. (r_2jk)				0.002			0.001			0.002

Models 1, 2 and 4 have mask use (from survey data) as the dependent variable. Model 3 has the residuals from model 1 as the dependent variable. Coefficients were estimated in multi-level models using a pseudo-panel from the 14-country survey data and three levels: time (level 1, defined by 10-day intervals), cohorts (level 2, defined by interaction of country, 5-year age ranges and gender) and countries (level 3). Time refers to time since first required measure. Coefficients of time and time² were random effects at the cohort level, with unrestricted covariances across random effects and a first-order auto-regressive error term covariance structure. The intra-class correlation coefficient was 0.77 and 0.01, respectively, at the country and cohort level. Residuals models were estimated with independent random effects for linear and quadratic time terms due to convergence issues. Results hold with time and time² random effects at the country level and with alternative pseudo-panel definitions, as well as with fixed-effects models and clustered standard errors at the country level using both pseudo-panels and individual disaggregated survey data (Supplementary Table 1b,d).

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Table 4 Change in adherence estimates with mask wearing as dependent variable (survey data)

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