Fig. 4: Canadian provinces—observed versus no-mandate counterfactual first doses as of 31 October 2021 (time-series estimates).
Observed (diamonds) and estimated mean counterfactual (dotted lines) cumulative first doses for each province by date. All displayed dates refer to 2021. The counterfactuals are computed using the estimates in Table 2. The shaded areas denote 5th–95th percentile confidence bands computed using 1,000 draws from the estimated asymptotic joint distribution of the parameters in equation (3). The vertical dashed lines denote the mandate announcement dates. The number next to each province name indicates the mean estimated p.p. increase in first doses relative to the no-mandate counterfactual, as of 31 October 2021.
