Fig. 3: Aggregate results on counterfactuals.
From: The unequal effects of the health–economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic
a,b, Deaths and unemployment across scenarios. For each scenario, we show the aggregate unemployment rate and the cumulative number of deaths, as averaged throughout the simulation period and the simulation runs (Supplementary Fig. 26 shows the variability across simulation runs and discusses its interpretation). The empirical scenario is highlighted to serve as a benchmark. Scenarios are distinguished by the strength of behaviour change, as exemplified by the fear of infection parameter (square: low; circle: baseline; triangle: high). a, Scenarios are further distinguished by the specific closure of economic activities (all non-essential industries, as occurred empirically, only customer-facing industries and no closures), keeping the start of protective measures fixed at the baseline, empirically observed date. b, Scenarios are further distinguished by the start of protective measures (baseline: 16 March 2020, as empirically; early: 17 February 2020 and late: 30 March 2020), keeping closures fixed at all non-essential industries. c, For the specific combination of high fear of infection and three different starts of protective measures, a time series of unemployment and deaths corresponding to the three scenarios is shown.
