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Using mathematical modelling and AI to improve delivery and efficacy of therapies in cancer

Abstract

Mathematical modelling has proven to be a valuable tool in predicting the delivery and efficacy of molecular, antibody-based, nano and cellular therapy in solid tumours. Mathematical models based on our understanding of the biological processes at subcellular, cellular and tissue level are known as mechanistic models that, in turn, are divided into continuous and discrete models. Continuous models are further divided into lumped parameter models — for describing the temporal distribution of medicine in tumours and normal organs — and distributed parameter models — for studying the spatiotemporal distribution of therapy in tumours. Discrete models capture interactions at the cellular and subcellular levels. Collectively, these models are useful for optimizing the delivery and efficacy of molecular, nanoscale and cellular therapy in tumours by incorporating the biological characteristics of tumours, the physicochemical properties of drugs, the interactions among drugs, cancer cells and various components of the tumour microenvironment, and for enabling patient-specific predictions when combined with medical imaging. Artificial intelligence-based methods, such as machine learning, have ushered in a new era in oncology. These data-driven approaches complement mechanistic models and have immense potential for improving cancer detection, treatment and drug discovery. Here we review these diverse approaches and suggest ways to combine mechanistic and artificial intelligence-based models to further improve patient treatment outcomes.

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Fig. 1: Mechanisms of transport of low-molecular-weight agents, nanoparticles, antibodies and cell therapies from the tumour vessel across the tumour vessel walls and within the tumour interstitial space.
Fig. 2: Lumped parameter physiologically based pharmacokinetic models can be used to calculate the time-dependent behaviour of the average drug concentration and cell density in different compartments.
Fig. 3: Distributed parameter models predict the spatiotemporal changes in the tumour and the surrounding normal tissue.
Fig. 4: Discrete modelling approaches are used to calculate the cellular heterogeneity and stochastic response of cells.
Fig. 5: Artificial intelligence models are data driven, finding patterns within the data without an understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank J. Baish, L.L. Munn, F. Yuan and W. Lotter for their helpful comments during the preparation of this article. This work was supported through NIH grant R35-CA197743, and in part through grants R01CA259253, R01-CA269672, R01-NS118929, U01-CA224348 and U01-CA261842 and by the National Foundation for Cancer Research, Harvard Ludwig Cancer Center, Nile Albright Research Foundation and Jane’s Trust Foundation (to R.K.J.). Also, this work has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 863955 to T.S.).

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C.H., A.G.H., C.V., A.S.K., T.S. and R.K.J. researched data for the article. C.H., A.G.H., C.V., A.S.K., T.S. and R.K.J. contributed substantially to discussion of the content. All authors wrote the article.

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Correspondence to Triantafyllos Stylianopoulos or Rakesh K. Jain.

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Competing interests

R.K.J. received consultant fees from DynamiCure, SPARC and SynDevRx; owns equity in Accurius, Enlight, SynDevRx; and served on the Boards of Trustees of Tekla Healthcare Investors, Tekla Life Sciences Investors, Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund and Tekla World Healthcare Fund; and received grants from Boehringer Ingelheim and Sanofi. Neither any reagent nor any funding from these organizations was used in this study. Other co-authors have no conflict of interests to declare.

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Nature Reviews Cancer thanks Georgios Lolas, Aleksander Popel who co-reviewed with Theinmozhi Arulraj and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Glossary

Anastomosis

The process of joining of two blood vessels.

Autologous chemotaxis

The process whereby a cell can receive directional cues while at the same time be the source of such cues.

Convection

The bulk motion of agents driven by the fluid velocity, which is proportional to fluid pressure gradient.

Finite element modelling

A computational numerical method used to solve partial differential equations by discretizing a structure into smaller parts called finite elements.

Hypoperfusion

Insufficient blood supply to tissues.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors

Therapeutic antibodies that inhibit regulators of the immune system, immune checkpoint proteins, that when stimulated suppress immune cell.

Interstitial fluid pressure

The pressure exerted by the fluid present in the spaces between cells in a tissue.

Pharmacodynamics

The study of the effect of the drug at the site of action.

Pharmacokinetics

The study of how drugs are absorbed, distributed, metabolized and eliminated in the body.

Random-walk model

A stochastic model that simulates the behaviour of cells, including cancer and endothelial cells, by capturing probabilistic processes such as cell migration, proliferation and the formation of new blood vessels.

Solid stresses

The mechanical forces (per unit area), in the context of tumour biology, refers to the mechanical stresses generated during tumour growth due to the deformation of the structural components of the tissue.

Targeted radionucleotide therapy

A systemic treatment that uses radiolabeled drugs (for example, antibodies, antibody fragments, proteins and peptides) that are cancer specific to deliver cytotoxic doses of radiation to kill cancer cells.

Tensotaxis

The migration of cells in response to mechanical stress.

Vascular normalization

Restoring normal structure and function of blood vessels in tumours (for example, with judicious use of anti-angiogenic agents).

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Harkos, C., Hadjigeorgiou, A.G., Voutouri, C. et al. Using mathematical modelling and AI to improve delivery and efficacy of therapies in cancer. Nat Rev Cancer 25, 324–340 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41568-025-00796-w

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