Extended Data Fig. 10: Clustering of symptomatic (n = 274) and subclinical cases (mean n = 507 across 100 reconstructed datasets) by school by time and serotype.

a, Probability of observing an augmented subclinical infection (irrespective of serotype) occurs at different time intervals within the same school of a detected symptomatic case relative to the probability of observing an augmented subclinical infection occurring in a different school in that same time interval. b, For augmented primary infections that are consistently of the same serotype (defined as >50% of augmented datasets having a primary infection in the same individual caused by the same serotype in the same six-month time window). Probability that an augmented primary infection that occurs within a fixed time window of a PCR-confirmed case and in the same school is of the same serotype relative to the probability that an augmented primary infection that occurs within the same time window in a different school is of the same serotype. Note that the modelling framework can only allow differentiation of serotypes for primary infections. Cross-reaction prevents differentiation in subsequent infections. Overall, 60% of primary infections have a consistent serotype for a primary infection across augmented datasets. Each box plot presents the 2.5%, 25%, 75% and the 97.5% quantiles of the distribution as well as the mean.