Extended Data Fig. 6: The finding that SRM mitigates little of the damages of climate change is consistent across three ensemble runs.
From: Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions
Bar graphs show the total effect of SRM on global yields (cropped-fraction weighted average), relative to the climate change control, for each of the three Earth system model runs. Results are similar across ensemble member runs. Maps on the right show the total effect of SSAs on maize yields for each of the ensemble runs. Error bars in the bar graphs show 95% confidence intervals for estimated mean effects for each crop. Statistically insignificant effects (P > 0.05) are hatched in the maps. Changes in uncropped land have been masked out by setting the values to zero. We calculate P values using a two-sided t-test comparing the estimated effects to a null hypothesis of zero effect. Within each ensemble member, we calculate the distributions of the estimated effects considering only statistical uncertainty. This uncertainty is shown in Extended Data Table 2, Extended Data Fig. 2, and the calculations are described in Supplementary Information, section IV.4.
