Extended Data Fig. 7: Estimated potential to reduce climate-related conflict risk.

For three scenarios (experiences to date and the 2 °C and 4 °C warming scenarios), each expert estimated the reduction in climate-related conflict risk that could occur with substantial investments in conflict risk reduction. Probability estimates are indicated for substantial decrease in conflict risk, moderate decrease in conflict risk or negligible change. Substantial investments include measures and policies that address known conflict drivers, which are expected to contribute to risk reduction. For past examples of organized armed conflict overall (blue), probability estimates indicate a risk reduction deficit³⁴. For the 2 °C and 4 °C warming scenarios presented here, probability estimates assume that the global mean warming levels are reached in the second half of the twenty-first century. Probability estimates encompass the range of socioeconomic development pathways that could occur over that timeframe. Open circles, individual estimates; filled circles, means across experts.