Extended Data Fig. 6: Expert judgments regarding the climate sensitivity and increase/decrease ratio of the most influential conflict drivers.

Two measures are used to characterize elicited judgments about the relationship between factors that drive conflict risk and climate in experiences to date: climate sensitivity and increase/decrease ratio. a, Sensitivity and increase/decrease ratio are shown for each causal factor (mean across experts; causal factor abbreviations as in Extended Data Fig. 2). The size of each data point indicates the number of experts who ranked the causal factor in their top-six-factor list. b, c, Mean sensitivity and increase/decrease ratio are repeated for each factor from a, shown as circles. For each factor, the range indicates the maximum and minimum sensitivity (b) and increase/decrease ratio (c) across the 11 experts. a, c, For causal factors with 100% estimated for negligible change (sensitivity = 0), the increase/decrease ratio is assigned a value of 0.5. b and c are repeated from Fig. 3, but with different sorting of factors, to enable comparison with a. For full definitions of the climate sensitivity and increase–decrease measures, see the legend of Fig. 3 and Methods.