Extended Data Table 1 The climatic sensitivity of most influential conflict drivers to date

From: Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

  1. Expert judgments about the state of knowledge on climate–conflict linkages are characterized for the most-influential factors driving conflict risk in experiences to date (see Fig. 3a). The available knowledge basis for each climate–conflict linkage is described through the level of evidence and the degree of agreement37. This approach linking expert judgments to their basis in the underlying scientific literature draws from guidance iteratively developed for and applied in assessments by the IPCC35. Summary terms for the type, amount, quality and consistency of available evidence include limited, medium and robust. The degree of agreement is characterized as low, medium or high; the degree of agreement goes beyond consistency of evidence to consider the extent of established, competing or speculative explanations across the full scholarly community. The assessment input relevant to the summarized entries draws from both the individual expert-elicitation interviews and the group deliberation (see Supplementary Tables 1, 2 for the extended judgments about current knowledge).
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