Extended Data Fig. 2: Uncertainties in epoch timings.
From: No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era
a–e, Uncertainties in the century in which peak warming or cooling (Fig. 3) occurred at each location and for each epoch, quantified by bootstrapping. The maps display the standard deviation of 1,000 recalculations of the century that has the largest ensemble probability of peak 51-year warming/cooling on the basis of bootstrap resampling of the 600 ensemble members (Methods). The maps show that the identified cold and warm peaks are generally robust across epochs. The largest uncertainties are found for the DACP epoch and for tropical and Southern Hemisphere regions. The uncertainty in the CWP warming is also very large in the (mainly Antarctic) regions in which peak warming is not identified in the late twentieth century (Fig. 3). f–j, As for panels a–e, but showing the 90% range instead of the standard deviation. Numbers on the y axis and upper x axis are degrees latitude and longitude.
