Extended Data Fig. 4: Sensitivity of historical and projected surface temperatures to geophysical uncertainties.
From: Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels
Responses of the global mean surface temperature to historical and projected emissions are shown using both ensemble mean (dashed lines) and the 95th percentile geophysical setup for ECS, TCR and aerosol forcing simultaneously (solid lines). The historical observations from Cowtan and Way50, HadCRUT440, GISTEMP41, NOAA42 and Berkeley Earth51 are shown for comparison. SAT, surface air temperature.
