Extended Data Fig. 4: Relationship between average lake depth and average heatwave intensity.

For each lake thermal region, the relationship between log₁₀[lake depth (m)] and the average intensity of lake heatwave events is shown for the historic period (averaged over all years from 1970 to 1999) and for the end of the twenty-first century (averaged over all years from 2070 to 2099) under RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. The relationships between lake depth and the heatwave metrics (square, not significant: P > 0.001; circle, significant: P < 0.001) were calculated with a generalized additive model (see Methods).